M&A Outlook 2026
Global M&A is entering a renewed expansion phase, with dealmaking increasingly driven by scale, strategic repositioning and capability building rather than opportunistic growth.
As financing conditions ease and confidence returns, 2026 is set to be defined by larger, cross-border transactions and the accelerated deployment of private capital.
Key Takeaways:
Record‑setting deal values despite turbulence. Global M&A volume climbed over $5 trillion in 2025 as companies rushed to secure scale and capabilities. Mega‑deals such as Kimberly‑Clark’s announced acquisition of consumer‑health business Kenvue highlight buyers’ willingness to pay hefty premiums. In Germany and neighboring economies, transaction counts fell but values rose, signaling a preference for larger, higher‑quality assets.
Transatlantic leadership. North America accounted for slightly over half of global M&A activity and buy‑out value increased roughly 69%. Europe followed with a ~24% rise to about $1 trillion. The DACH region saw fewer deals yet a 30% increase in value, while cross‑border flows between Europe and the U.S. gained momentum.
Sponsors still have lots of dry powder. Private‑equity firms continue to hold roughly $2 trillion in undeployed capital. Global buy‑out value climbed nearly 40% to $850 billion, and family offices continued to favor infrastructure and AI‑linked assets.
Sentiment: improved yet cautious. BCG’s M&A Sentiment Index has rebounded from its late‑2022 trough but remains below its long‑term average. Optimism is strongest in Europe, where the index climbed to the mid‑90s in December 2025. The Americas also trended upward; the global index sits around 75, indicating guarded optimism.
Key obstacles. Dealmakers must confront geopolitical risk, volatile rates, evolving regulations and heightened scrutiny in the upcoming months and likely years. Executing mega‑deals demands discipline, and even mid‑sized transactions face complex approvals.
2026 tailwinds: falling interest rates, stabilizing credit markets and pent‑up demand should spur a flurry of deals. Early 2026 activity - such as U.S. steelmaker Worthington Steel’s roughly $2.4 billion offer for Germany’s Klöckner & Co - shows that transatlantic partnerships and acquisition interest in Europe have started the year with strong momentum.
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